Outlook Australia
Understanding who Australia is becoming — and why it matters
ORDE Financial in partnership with Bernard Salt presents a comprehensive research report on the demographic forces reshaping Australia's borrowing landscape over the next decade.
7M Millennials entering their forever-home decade
32% Of Australians born overseas — a growing borrower cohort
+143% Growth in professional roles over 25 years
Australia's evolving workforce is creating a new profile of complex-income borrowers
The forces shaping the next decade of lending
For investors evaluating the quality of a private credit investment, demographic insight offers something that quarterly data cannot: a structural view of the underlying demand for credit over time.
Trend 01 — Millennials and the forever-home decade
Australia's approximately seven million millennials are moving into their forties over the next decade — the life stage most closely associated with upgrading, refinancing, and settling into a long-term family home. Rising incomes, combined with an intergenerational wealth transfer from Baby Boomers, are materially increasing their lending capacity.
Key data point: ~7 million Australians entering their peak borrowing decade between 2026 and 2036.
Trend 02 — Cultural diversity shaping new borrower needs
With 32% of Australians now born overseas, multicultural borrower segments are among the fastest growing in the country. These communities are ambitious, often business-oriented, and present distinct lending requirements — from first home purchasing in master-planned estates to early-stage business financing and investment pathways that require nuanced guidance.
Key data point: 1 in 5 overseas-born Australians operates as a business owner-manager (ABS).
Trend 03 — Commercial heartlands on the rise
Between 2022 and 2025, Melbourne's west, Sydney's south-west and Queensland's south-east recorded some of the nation's strongest growth in commercial and industrial approvals. Infrastructure investment, improved transport connectivity, and precinct renewal are creating conditions for SME formation, trades expansion, and professional services growth in areas that were previously residential in character.
Key data point: Commercial and industrial investment has risen sharply across Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane growth corridors.
Trend 04 — The great skills shift and non-traditional income profiles
Over the past 25 years, the tradie workforce has grown by 50%, while professional occupations — health practitioners, IT consultants, engineers — have grown by 143%. Australia's workforce is skewing towards higher-skilled, better-paid roles, but many of these workers earn through structures that sit outside traditional PAYG frameworks: consulting arrangements, ABNs, seasonal contracts, and business partnerships.
Key data point: Tradie workforce up 50% and professional roles up 143% over 25 years — both increasingly non-PAYG (ABS Labour Force).
Trend 01 — Millennials and the forever-home decade
Australia's approximately seven million millennials are moving into their forties over the next decade — the life stage most closely associated with upgrading, refinancing, and settling into a long-term family home. Rising incomes, combined with an intergenerational wealth transfer from Baby Boomers, are materially increasing their lending capacity.
Key data point: ~7 million Australians entering their peak borrowing decade between 2026 and 2036.
Trend 02 — Cultural diversity shaping new borrower needs
With 32% of Australians now born overseas, multicultural borrower segments are among the fastest growing in the country. These communities are ambitious, often business-oriented, and present distinct lending requirements — from first home purchasing in master-planned estates to early-stage business financing and investment pathways that require nuanced guidance.
Key data point: 1 in 5 overseas-born Australians operates as a business owner-manager (ABS).
Trend 03 — Commercial heartlands on the rise
Between 2022 and 2025, Melbourne's west, Sydney's south-west and Queensland's south-east recorded some of the nation's strongest growth in commercial and industrial approvals. Infrastructure investment, improved transport connectivity, and precinct renewal are creating conditions for SME formation, trades expansion, and professional services growth in areas that were previously residential in character.
Key data point: Commercial and industrial investment has risen sharply across Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane growth corridors.
Trend 04 — The great skills shift and non-traditional income profiles
Over the past 25 years, the tradie workforce has grown by 50%, while professional occupations — health practitioners, IT consultants, engineers — have grown by 143%. Australia's workforce is skewing towards higher-skilled, better-paid roles, but many of these workers earn through structures that sit outside traditional PAYG frameworks: consulting arrangements, ABNs, seasonal contracts, and business partnerships.
Key data point: Tradie workforce up 50% and professional roles up 143% over 25 years — both increasingly non-PAYG (ABS Labour Force).
Next steps
Outlook Australia Report
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